Business leaders are losing faith in rail, according to the results of a survey published by the Railway Industry Association.

A total of 125 companies were asked whether they thought the rail market would contract or grow in the coming year by independent pollsters Savanta, and almost two thirds thought it was likely to contract, as opposed to just under half last year.

One result is that 62 per cent of firms are freezing recruitment and 34 per cent are shedding jobs.

In contrast, only 23 per cent of firms are forecasting that that they will contract, and 44 per cent are expecting to grow.

A pause in rail work is also expected during 2026 by 85 per cent of those questioned, which is two percentage points more than 12 months ago. Most firms are turning more attention to exports as well as cutting back on recruitment.

The survey was carried out for the Railway Industry Association in October and November, and does not take into account reactions to the Budget in late November.

RIA chief executive Darren Caplan said: ‘These are concerning findings for the railway industry. Rail passenger, freight and revenue levels are rising and more capacity will be required in the future, yet confidence in the UK rail market is falling and businesses are freezing recruitment or reducing headcount. However, it is positive to see that individual rail businesses are generally more confident in their own ability to grow, albeit in a significant number of cases such growth being in overseas markets.

‘The Railway Industry Association and our members have been warning for years about “boom and bust” in rail infrastructure and rolling stock investment, and we have voiced concerns about a hiatus in work as rail currently restructures. This survey is further evidence that more needs to be done to give rail suppliers the confidence they need to compete for work and invest in their business plans and teams for 2026; otherwise, talented people and skills will be lost to other sectors and to overseas markets.

‘RIA and our members want to be optimistic and we recognise major rail projects such as the Transpennine Route Upgrade, East West Rail, Midlands Rail Hub and Docklands Light Railway extension. But significant steps do need to be taken in the short-term to bring more confidence to the rail market now.

‘The Government needs to provide more detail about the rail enhancements projects in its Infrastructure Pipeline and produce a rolling stock strategy and pipeline as soon as possible. There needs to be clarity given on plans for innovative forms of funding, whether private or Third Party. And major rail clients need to set out their short and medium term spending plans without delay, especially given we now know the Government’s Spending Review and Budget priorities. These measures can help mitigate the current market confidence concerns, and provide certainty for suppliers as rail is restructured and Great British Railways is established in the years ahead.’

What do you think? Click here to let us know.