Major railway electrification will take place within the next 30 years, according to a government transport expert.

Derek Chapman, head of rail systems at the Department for Transport, said: “In 30 years time I think all of today's high-speed lines and the core metropolitan areas will be electrified.”

He was speaking at the Derby and Derbyshire Rail Forum’s conference on sustainability and the environment, which had been opened via a video link by rail minister Tom Harris. Railnews was one of the conference sponsors.

He disclosed that consultants W S Atkins has studied four possible electrification projects – the Midland main line from Bedford to Sheffield, the Great Western main line, the Chiltern route and the CrossCountry network.

The ‘best case’ was the Midland main line, with Great Western “good in parts – London to Oxford and London to Bristol”.

“The environmental numbers are significant,” said Mr Chapman, “but they still don't tip the balance for either Chiltern or CrossCountry.”

Mr Chapman’s revelation came only days after a letter to the DfT from Network Rail chief executive Iain Coucher and Adrian Shooter, chairman of the Association of Train Operating Companies, raising their concerns about its approach to electrification.

Mr Chapman said: “There is some serious work going on about what can and needs to be done in the future. The White Paper does not say there will be no more electrification in the future.”

Further electrification needed to be linked to future rolling stock and signalling renewals, said Mr Chapman, who leads the government team developing long-term technical strategy for the main-line rail network.

But he also told the conference that electric trains are better than diesel trains: electrification reduces carbon emissions by 20 to 30 per cent compared with diesel.

Overall benefits in the future would depend on the electricity generation mix, including how much use is made of renewable sources such as wind and wave power.

European Commission regulations on diesel engine emissions from 2012 would also “affect the electrification argument”.

Mr Chapman, however, complained that the industry had been slow to achieve “easy gains”, such as regenerative braking or fitting electricity meters in trains.

Network Rail's strategic business plan, published at the beginning of November, says the company is on course towards making all the high-voltage overhead electrified network capable of absorbing regenerated energy by the end of 2008. But it says the position with the third rail network is more complex, largely because of interlinking with London Underground’s supply system.

The business plan points out that approximately 40 per cent of the UK network is electrified. It says: “Environmental legislation comes into force in 2012, setting tough emission targets for diesel engines. This, and concerns over the future cost of fossil fuels, may make the business case for further electrification of the network more attractive. We are looking with the rest of industry at opportunities for infill electrification as part of the route utilisation strategy.”

The plan makes similar points to those raised by Coucher and Shooter in their letter. They argued that using diesel trains as ‘mini-power stations’ was “inefficient and wasteful”.