A MAJOR PLAN for National Rail rolling stock over the next 30 years predicts that as many as 19,000 new vehicles may be needed and that the fleet may almost double in size. The new strategy, which has been produced by Network Rail, train operators and the major leasing companies, also suggests that comparatively few 'self-powered' trains will be built from now on, because electrification is expected to cover most of the network.

Network Rail group strategy director Paul Plummer pointed out that the plan "marks the first time that the long-term rolling stock implications of passenger growth and infrastructure upgrades such as electrification and HS2 have been modelled and considered together".

The significantly larger fleet of the future will be needed to cater for rising demand, and the report warns that there will be implications for infrastructure as well, with more depots and stabling sidings needed to accommodate the additional trains.

The proportion of the fleet powered by electricity is expected to rise from 68 per cent today to 80 per cent in 2019, as a result of projects which are already under way or authorised, such as electrification of the Great Western and Midland Main Lines. The report predicts this proportion couid rise to over 90 per cent by the early 2040s, which mark the far end of the present plan.

The modelled scenarios indicate that between 13,000 and 19,000 new electric vehicles will be required by 2042, which would require an average build rate of between eight and 12 vehicles a week. The report says the total could be still higher, depending on individual decisions by franchise bidders and funders about the relative merits of life extension or replacement of the present fleets. The requirements for new non-electric vehicles will be small by comparison – possibly as few as 400 to 800 over the next 30 years. These will be needed for the minority of routes which are unlikely to be electrified, at least in the foreseeable future.

The report's authors also point out that their document is 'not a cascade plan for the deployment of rolling stock. It is intended to help inform Government on potential approaches to rail strategy and to stimulate the industry to develop and deliver optimised whole-life, whole-system, rolling stock investments. We believe that the best way of achieving the latter is through the franchising process as this should provide market-driven solutions, procured in a competitive environment.'

ATOC chief executive Michael Roberts said: “The boom in passenger journeys heralds a bright future for the railways.  A long-term rolling stock strategy helps the industry prepare for that future and underpins franchising as the best way to drive efficient delivery of fleet which meets passengers’ needs.”

Angel Trains CEO Malcolm Brown said: “Rightly, the three rolling stock companies have been a corner stone in the development of the strategy to meet passenger demands for the next 30 years.

“The businesses will actively compete with each other to invest in existing and new rolling stock, having already secured over £10 billion of investment since rail privatisation. This will ensure the UK has one of the youngest train fleets in Europe.”

The publication of this plan comes at a critical time for the train-building industry. The Thameslink rolling stock order, for which Siemens has been preferred bidder since June 2011, has yet to be signed off, while the Bombardier plant at Derby is currently gaining several smaller orders for additional electric multiple units, including at least 57 vehicles for London Overground. The next major order will be for the London Crossrail fleet, for which Bombardier is expected to be a major contender.