Paul Martin, Director General The Railway Forum
THE recent turbulence in the financial markets and the onset of recessionary fears have caused oil prices to fall from the highs of the summer. Many would argue that, like past volatility in oil prices, the July price of $147 a barrel was a temporary peak and that the market has now corrected itself.
Yet I believe that is either delusional or wishful thinking. Given economic growth rates in China and India, and the peaking of oil production, we cannot bury our head in the sand about the enormity of the challenge ahead. Britain must now be planning for the post-oil economy.
Transport policy in Britain since the war has been based on the relative cheapness of oil as a source of energy. When other countries electrified their railways, Britain pursued primarily a policy of substituting steam with diesel. Even last year when the price of oil was $77 a barrel, the Department for Transport in the rail White Paper stated that the case for network-wide electrification “will be kept under review; it is not made yet”.
Renewable, and possibly nuclear, energy improves the carbon performance of electrical generation and helps further the case for electrification. Isn’t it absurd that some relatively small gaps in the electrified network result in lengthy journeys by diesel trains ‘under the wires’?
A particularly strong case for electrification exists on routes such as Bedford to Nottingham and to Sheffield via Derby, as well as London to Bristol and South Wales. Many of our major regional cities have seen stronger growth than London and there is a good case for electrifying these urban routes where the effects of improved acceleration and regenerative braking can be used to best effect.
Demand for rail is currently strong and every expectation remains that, despite the economic downturn, growth will continue. In the last ten years we have seen a resurgence of rail in Britain, with an in-crease in passenger mileage of some 40 per cent, carried on 20,000 trains a day.
Whilst we welcome the stability ensured by the five year planning cycle for rail, instituted by the DfT, we must ensure that, if we are to avoid a capacity shortfall in the years ahead, we start some serious long term planning now. The DfT last year specified the need to meet a 23.5 per cent increase in capacity by 2014, even with a regulated fares policy based on RPI +1. It also predicts that, up until 2030, demand will grow on long distance routes by over 70 per cent.
Obviously, making the best use of what we have must be the starting point, in terms of longer trains, improved signalling and removal of pinch points on the network. But, as we see the price of private motoring rise in real terms, coupled with a shift to rail, we need to start looking at meeting the capacity challenge by building new lines.
Trying to continually squeeze a quart out of a pint pot doesn’t address the basic problem associated with different line speeds on a mixed-use railway, which is particularly crucial if we are to continue to plan for the very welcome growth in rail freight.
Last year the industry celebrated the opening of High Speed One to St. Pancras International. Yet the planning of HS1 started twenty years ago. This year we can celebrate Royal Assent to Crossrail – the planning of which goes back even further.
No one is seriously suggesting that we shall see new lines built within the next five years – other priorities must come first. But, if we are to meet the looming capacity crunch in the next decade and beyond, we must start the planning now –and, in particular, identify and safeguard route corridors from future development pressure. If we don’t do that now, we could find that building new lines in the next decade becomes harder than it otherwise would be.
We will be pressing all the political parties in the run up to the next election to give clear manifesto commitments to that effect. We will point to the fact that, whilst it is now possible to travel the three hundred miles from London to Paris in two and a quarter hours by rail, it still takes just under four and a half hours to travel the four hundred miles from London to Edinburgh.
Too often in the past the language on public transport in Britain was that of managed decline. As we move to the post-oil era, we need to think in terms of planned expansion.
As a nation we cannot afford a situation in 2030 where oil is increasingly unaffordable for the transport of goods by road, where the average family has been priced out of their car, but rail transport is unobtainable or unaffordable. We cannot adopt a policy of waiting to see what will happen if, in line with all the predications, key spines of the country such as the West Coast Main Line reach saturation point.
That is why – when all of the urgent priorities have been tackled – we need a 20/20 vision for rail. This is no longer just about our industry – this is essential for Britain’s future.
Reader Comments:
Views expressed in submitted comments are that of the author, and not necessarily shared by Railnews.
We need a new high speed line up to glasgow and edinburgh now
with spurs off for liverpool manchester and birmingham
The sooner the government gets off the fence and starts planning
for it the better.
leslie burge, leicester